Continuation power flow analysis of distribution systems under uncertainty using modified affine arithmetic

Conventional continuation power flow analysis (CPF) gives the maximum loadability from voltage versus power curves (V-P curves) for a deterministic set of loads and generations. But, in presence of uncertainties in power generations and loads conventional analysis may give wrong results. In this work, a range arithmetic analysis known as Affine Arithmetic (AA) with modifications is used to incorporate the uncertainties associated with loads generations in CPF analysis of distribution systems. Newton-Raphson method based CPF with modified AA is used to determine the bounds of maximum loadability from V-P curves. The proposed modified AA based CPF analysis under uncertainty can be applied to radial as well as mesh connected distribution systems and is tested on 69 bus radial and 119 bus radial mesh distribution systems. Simulation results with the proposed method are compared with existing AA based CPF and Monte Carlo simulations based CPF analyses.