Effect of blow-holes on reliability of cast component

This paper presents a study on the effect of blow-holes on the reliability of a cast component. The most probable point (MPP) based univariate response surface approximation is used for evaluating reliability. Crack geometry, blow-hole dimensions, external loads and material properties are treated as independent random variables. The methodology involves novel function decomposition at a most probable point that facilitates the MPP-based univariate response surface approximation of the original multivariate implicit limit state/performance function in the rotated Gaussian space. Once the approximate form of the original implicit limit state/performance function is defined, the failure probability can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), importance sampling technique, and first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). FORTRAN code is developed to automate calls to ABAQUS for numerically simulating responses at sample points, to construct univariate response surface approximation, and to subsequently evaluate the failure probability by MCS, importance sampling technique, and FORM/SORM. © Printed in India.