Post-blackening approach for modeling dependent annual streamflows

The post-blackening (PB) approach is introduced for modeling annual streamflows that exhibit significant dependence. This is a hybrid approach that blends a simple low-order, linear parametric model with the moving block resampling scheme. Empirical simulations performed using known hypothetical nonlinear parametric models, show that the hybrid model gains significantly by utilizing the merits of both the parametric model and the moving block resampling scheme (nonparametric). Following this, the performance of the PB model is tested with four annual streamflow records with complex dependence, drawn from different parts of the world. The results from these examples show that the PB approach exhibits a better performance in terms of preservation of summary statistics, dependence structure, marginal distribution, and drought characteristics of historical streamflows, compared to low-order linear parametric models and model based resampling schemes (nonparametric model). Furthermore, it offers flexibility to the modeler and is also simple to implement on a personal computer. This hybrid approach seems to offer considerable scope for improvement in hydrologic time series modeling and its applications to water resources planning. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.