Demand forecasting for long-haul intercity rail travel: A case study

Intercity travel demand models are developed by relating the tra vel to the aggregate socio-economic characteristics of the travellers and the technical and level of service characteristics of the transportation system. Indian population census data, which is based on hundred percent sampling, serves as a reliable base for study of the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the people of any chosen geographic region of the country. The demand for travel being dependent on the socio-economic characteristics of the people, the census data has good potential for use in travel demand predictions. This study deals with development of demand model for long-haul rail travel in India by making use of the population census data for quantification of the causal variables. The developed model was found to be statistically significant in explaining the variation in the demand for tra vel. The developed model was also used to forecast the demand for long-haul rail travel.